Real-time assessment of COVID-19 epidemic in Guangdong Province, China using mathematical models.

China government has relaxed the response measures of COVID-19 in early December 2022. In this report, we assessed the number of infections, the number of severe cases based on the current epidemic trend (October 22, 2022 to November 30, 2022) using a transmission dynamics model, called modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) to provide valuable information to ensure the medical operation of the healthcare system under the new situation. Our model showed that the present outbreak in Guangdong Province peaked during December 21, 2022 to December 25, 2022 with about 14.98 million new infections (95% CI: 14.23-15.73 million). The cumulative number of infections will reach about 70% of the province's population from December 24, 2022 to December 26, 2022. The number of existing severe cases is expected to peak during January 1, 2023 to January 5, 2023 with a peak number of approximately 101.45 thousand (95% CI: 96.38-106.52 thousand). In addition, the epidemic in Guangzhou which is the capital city of Guangdong Province is expected to have peaked around December 22, 2022 to December 23, 2022 with the number of new infections at the peak being about 2.45 million (95% CI: 2.33-2.57 million). The cumulative number of infected people will reach about 70% of the city's population from December 24, 2022 to December 25, 2022 and the number of existing severe cases is expected to peak around January 4, 2023 to January 6, 2023 with the number of existing severe cases at the peak being about 6.32 thousand (95% CI: 6.00-6.64 thousand). Predicted results enable the government to prepare medically and plan for potential risks in advance.

Culturing Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) for Diagnosis and Genome Sequencing.

OBJECTIVE: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) nucleic acid detection "re-positive" phenomenon is encountered clinically. The accuracy of a viral nucleic acid test is crucial to prevent reintroduction of the virus into the community. This study evaluated the effect of virus culturing on increasing the sensitivity and specificity of real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) detection and viral genomic sequencing. METHODS: A series of tenfold dilutions of a SARS-CoV-2 viral stock were conducted and cultured for either 24 or 48 hours. The viral load of cultured samples was determined by RT-PCR. The cultured and non-cultured samples of 1x 50% tissue culture infectious dose (TCID50) were sequenced using metagenomic next-generation sequencing. The depth and coverage of SARS-CoV-2 genome were measured. RESULTS: The lowest viral load detectable in a sample with RT-PCR was 0.01 TCID50. After a 24-h culture, the viral ORF 1ab and N-gene cycle threshold (CT) values were reduced by 4.4 points and 1 point, respectively. One TCID50 viral load of post 24-h culture revealed the sequence depth reached an average of 752 reads, compared with 0.15 in the nonculture; furthermore, the coverage was 99.99% while 6.42% in the nonculture. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that virus culturing can significantly increase the viral load, which can increase the certainty of true-positive detection of the viral nucleic acids, and improve the quality of virus genomic sequencing.

How fast and how well the Omicron epidemic was curtailed. A Guangzhou experience to share.

Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 has ravaged the world and undergone multiple mutations during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. On 7 April 2022, an epidemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (BA.2) variant broke out in Guangzhou, China, one of the largest transportation and logistical hubs of the country. Methods: To fast curtained the Omicron epidemic, based on the routine surveillance on the risk population of SARS-CoV-2 infection, we identify key places of the epidemic and implement enhanced control measures against Omicron. Results: Transmission characteristics of the Omicron variant were analyzed for 273 confirmed cases, and key places involved in this epidemic were fully presented. The median incubation time and the generation time were 3 days, and the reproduction number Rt was sharply increased with a peak of 4.20 within 2 days. We tried an all-out effort to tackle the epidemic in key places, and the proportion of confirmed cases increased from 61.17% at Stage 2 to 88.89% at Stage 4. Through delimited risk area management, 99 cases were found, and the cases were isolated in advance for 2.61 ± 2.76 days in a lockdown zone, 0.44 ± 1.08 days in a controlled zone, and 0.27 ± 0.62 days in a precautionary zone. People assigned with yellow code accounted for 30.32% (84/277) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, and 83.33% of them were detected positive over 3 days since code assignment. For the districts outside the epicenter, the implementation duration of NPIs was much shorter compared with the Delta epidemic last year. Conclusion: By blocking out transmission risks and adjusting measures to local epidemic conditions through the all-out effort to tackle the epidemic in key places, by delimiting risk area management, and by conducting health code management of the at-risk population, the Omicron epidemic could be contained quickly.

Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study.

China detected the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with Delta variant in May 2021. We assessed control strategies against this variant of concern. We constructed a robust transmission model to assess the effectiveness of interventions against the Delta variant in Guangzhou with initial quarantine/isolation, followed by social distancing. We also assessed the effectiveness of alternative strategies and that against potentially more infectious variants. The effective reproduction number (Rt) fell below 1 when the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 7 and quarantine/isolation was implemented on average at the same day of symptom onset in Guangzhou. Simulations showed that the outbreak could still be contained when quarantine is implemented on average 1 day after symptom onset while the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 9 per person one week after the outbreak's beginning. Early quarantine and reduction of close contacts were found to be important for containment of the outbreaks. Early implementation of quarantine/isolation along with social distancing measures could effectively suppress spread of the Delta and more infectious variants.

Crucial control measures to contain China's first Delta variant outbreak.

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant flared up in late May in Guangzhou, China. Transmission characteristics of Delta variant were analysed for 153 confirmed cases and two complete transmission chains with seven generations were fully presented. A rapid transmission occurred in five generations within 10 days. The basic reproduction number (R0) was 3.60 (95% confidence interval: 2.50-5.30). After redefining the concept of close contact, the proportion of confirmed cases discovered from close contacts increased from 43% to 100%. With the usage of a yellow health code, the potential exposed individuals were self-motivated to take a nucleic acid test and regained public access with a negative testing result. Facing the massive requirement of screening, novel facilities like makeshift inflatable laboratories were promptly set up as a vital supplement and 17 cases were found, with 1 pre-symptomatic. The dynamic adjustment of these three interventions resulted in the decline of Rt from 5.00 to 1.00 within 9 days. By breaking the transmission chain and eliminating the transmission source through extending the scope of the close-contact tracing, health-code usage and mass testing, the Guangzhou Delta epidemic was effectively contained.

Co-infecting pathogens can contribute to inflammatory responses and severe symptoms in COVID-19.

Background: The current COVID-19 pandemic is posing a major challenge to public health on a global scale. While it is generally believed that severe COVID-19 results from over-expression of inflammatory mediators (i.e., a "cytokine storm"), it is still unclear whether and how co-infecting pathogens contribute to disease pathogenesis. To address this, we followed the entire course of the disease in cases with severe or critical COVID-19 to determine the presence and abundance of all potential pathogens present-the total "infectome"-and how they interact with the host immune system in the context of severe COVID-19. Methods: We examined one severe and three critical cases of COVID-19, as well as a set of healthy controls, with longitudinal samples (throat swab, whole blood, and serum) collected from each case. Total RNA sequencing (meta-transcriptomics) was performed to simultaneously investigate pathogen diversity and abundance, as well as host immune responses, in each sample. A Bio-Plex method was used to measure serum cytokine and chemokine levels. Results: Eight pathogens, SARS-CoV-2, Aspergillus fumigatus (A. fumigatus), Mycoplasma orale (M. orale), Myroides odoratus (M. odoratus), Acinetobacter baumannii (A. baumannii), Candida tropicalis, herpes simplex virus (HSV) and human cytomegalovirus (CMV), identified in patients with COVID-19 appeared at different stages of the disease. The dynamics of inflammatory mediators in serum and the respiratory tract were more strongly associated with the dynamics of the infectome compared with SARS-CoV-2 alone. Correlation analysis revealed that pulmonary injury was directly associated with cytokine levels, which in turn were associated with the proliferation of SARS-CoV-2 and co-infecting pathogens. Conclusions: For each patient, the cytokine storm that resulted in acute lung injury and death involved a dynamic and highly complex infectome, of which SARS-CoV-2 was a component. These results indicate the need for a precision medicine approach to investigate both the infection and host response as a standard means of infectious disease characterization.

Different Circulation Pattern of Multiple Respiratory Viruses in Southern China During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

China implemented stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in spring 2020, which has effectively suppressed SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we utilized data from routine respiratory virus testing requests from physicians and examined circulation of 11 other respiratory viruses in Southern China, from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2020. A total of 58,169 throat swabs from patients with acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) were collected and tested. We found that while the overall activity of respiratory viruses was lower during the period with stringent NPIs, virus activity rebounded shortly after the NPIs were relaxed and social activities resumed. Only influenza was effectively suppressed with very low circulation which extended to the end of 2020. Circulation of other respiratory viruses in the community was maintained even during the period of stringent interventions, especially for rhinovirus. Our study shows that NPIs against COVID-19 have different impacts on respiratory viruses.

Seroprevalence of Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Guangdong Province, China between March to June 2020.

Guangdong province, located in South China, is an important economic hub with a large domestic migrant population and was among the earliest areas to report COVID-19 cases outside of Wuhan. We conducted a cross-sectional, age-stratified serosurvey to determine the seroprevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 after the emergence of COVID-19 in Guangdong. We tested 14,629 residual serum samples that were submitted for clinical testing from 21 prefectures between March and June 2020 for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using a magnetic particle based chemiluminescent enzyme immunoassay and validated the results using a pseudovirus neutralization assay. We found 21 samples positive for SARS-CoV-2 IgG, resulting in an estimated age- and sex-weighted seroprevalence of 0.15% (95% CI: 0.06-0.24%). The overall age-specific seroprevalence was 0.07% (95% CI: 0.01-0.24%) in persons up to 9 years old, 0.22% (95% CI: 0.03-0.79%) in persons aged 10-19, 0.16% (95% CI: 0.07-0.33%) in persons aged 20-39, 0.13% (95% CI: 0.03-0.33%) in persons aged 40-59 and 0.18% (95% CI: 0.07-0.40%) in persons ≥60 years old. Fourteen (67%) samples had pseudovirus neutralization titers to S-protein, suggesting most of the IgG-positive samples were true-positives. Seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 was low, indicating that there were no hidden epidemics during this period. Vaccination is urgently needed to increase population immunity to SARS-CoV-2.

Narrative review of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2: update on genomic characteristics, transmissions and animal model.

Two outbreaks of severe respiratory infection caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) caused global pandemics and highlighted the importance of preparedness for respiratory CoVs. Recently, a third highly pathogenic CoV, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first identified in Wuhan, Hubei, China and posed a public health crisis worldwide. Here, we focus on the recent advances of the novel CoV, and discuss its genomic similarity with other CoVs, transmission, animal model and clinical treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) induced by SARS-CoV-2, which help epidemic prevention and control, and guide treatment strategies.

Increased Pathogenicity and Virulence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Clade B In Vitro and In Vivo

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) causes severe acute respiratory disease in humans. MERS-CoV strains from early epidemic clade A and contemporary epidemic clade B have not been phenotypically characterized to compare their abilities to infect cells and mice. We isolated the clade B MERS-CoV ChinaGD01 strain from a patient infected during the South Korean MERS outbreak in 2015 and compared the phylogenetics and pathogenicity of MERS-CoV EMC/2012 (clade A) and ChinaGD01 (clade B) in vitro and in vivo Genome alignment analysis showed that most clade-specific mutations occurred in the orf1ab gene, including mutations that were predicted to be potential glycosylation sites. Minor differences in viral growth but no significant differences in plaque size or sensitivity to beta interferon (IFN-ß) were detected between these two viruses in vitro ChinaGD01 virus infection induced more weight loss and inflammatory cytokine production in human DPP4-transduced mice. Viral titers were higher in the lungs of ChinaGD01-infected mice than with EMC/2012 infection. Decreased virus-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cell numbers were detected in the lungs of ChinaGD01-infected mice. In conclusion, MERS-CoV evolution induced changes to reshape its pathogenicity and virulence in vitro and in vivo and to evade adaptive immune response to hinder viral clearance.IMPORTANCE MERS-CoV is an important emerging pathogen and causes severe respiratory infection in humans. MERS-CoV strains from early epidemic clade A and contemporary epidemic clade B have not been phenotypically characterized to compare their abilities to infect cells and mice. In this study, we showed that a clade B virus ChinaGD01 strain caused more severe disease in mice, with delayed viral clearance, increased inflammatory cytokines, and decreased antiviral T cell responses, than the early clade A virus EMC/2012. Given the differences in pathogenicity of different clades of MERS-CoV, periodic assessment of currently circulating MERS-CoV is needed to monitor potential severity of zoonotic disease.